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Global energy demand to rise 35pc: ExxonMobil

DOHA: Expanding prosperity around the world and a growing population will drive an increase in global energy demand of about 35 percent by 2030 compared to 2005, while natural gas will emerge as the second-largest energy source behind oil, ExxonMobil said yesterday as it discussed its new edition of 'Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030' during a media roundtable.

Growth rates in energy demand for Qatar during the same period (2005-2030) is about 5 percent or about twice and that the increase in population and buildings and the nergy industry itself are the biggest energy-demand sectors, Rob Gardner, Manager for the Energy and Economics Division of the ExxonMobil Corporate Strategic Planning Department told reporters.

As for shale-gas, he said in the US it will be growing to be over 60 percent of the supply by 2030. "That is replacing the decline in conventional production and reducing the need for imports, thus that increases the shale gas share that is going to change what was originally expected."

He added that the global market is expected to re-balance which is already under way now, noting that the nuclear incident in Japan is going to increase LNG demand in the short-term in the Asian-pacific.

The growing use of natural gas and other less-carbon intensive energy supplies, combined with greater energy efficiency in nations around the world, will help mitigate environmental impacts of increased energy demand. According to the Outlook, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions growth will be lower than the projected average rate of growth in energy demand.

"Our energy outlook clearly points to a growing demand for energy globally which reflects improving living standards for millions of people around the world. ExxonMobil will continue to invest in technology and innovation to develop new economic energy supplies to help meet this demand while looking for ways to reduce environmental impacts," said Gardner.

"The forecasts also show a shift toward natural gas as businesses and governments look for reliable, affordable and cleaner ways to meet energy needs."

For instance ExxonMobil is to invest in Qatar over QR 217m until 2014 just for research.Overall ExxonMobil has invested in Qatar some $ 16bn, excluding its investment in terminals.

The Outlook for Energy is a comprehensive study developed annually to help guide ExxonMobil 's global investment decisions. The company shares the findings publicly to increase understanding of the world's energy needs and challenges. The outlook is underpinned by economic and population projections and expectations of significant energy efficiency improvements and technology advancements.

Rising electricity demand - and the choice of fuels used to generate that electricity - represent a key focus area, which will have a major impact on the global energy landscape over the next two decades. According to the outlook, global electricity demand will rise by more than 80 percent through 2030 from 2005 levels. Electricity demand in the Middle East is projected to increase by more than 150 percent from 2005 to 2030 and natural gas is projected to grow sharply, with its share increasing from approximately 50 percent in 2005 to approximately 70 percent by 2030.

According to ExxonMobil 's Outlook, efforts to ensure reliable, affordable energy while also limiting greenhouse gas emissions will lead to polices in many countries that put a cost on carbon dioxide emissions.

As a result, abundant supplies of natural gas will become increasingly competitive as an economic source of electric power as its use results in less CO2 emissions than other energy sources in generating electricity. Demand for natural gas for power generation is expected to rise by about 85 percent from 2005 to 2030 when natural gas will provide more than a quarter of the world's electricity needs. Natural gas demand is rising in every region of the world. This is of great pertinence in Qatar, given that Qatar is the premier supplier of LNG to the global marketplace.

This year's findings show that rapid economic growth and expanding prosperity in developing countries that are not part of the OECD will drive an increase in their energy demand of more than 70 percent in 2030 compared to 2005.

By contrast, improvements in energy efficiency will help keep energy demand in OECD countries essentially flat over the period to 2030, even though the total economic output of these nations is expected to rise by approximately 60 percent.

Besides, efficiency gains are expected to accelerate between 2005 and 2030 versus historical trends. Gains in the wise and efficient use of energy across all sectors of economies worldwide will curb energy demand growth through 2030 by about 65 percent.

There will be an expansion of natural gas supply and power generation is the largest and fastest growing major energy-demand sector and is likely to represent 55 percent of the total growth in demand through 2030. At that time, power generation will account for about 40 percent of total primary energy demand.

© The Peninsula 2011