Egypt will surpass Saudi Arabia as the region's largest economy by 2050 and emerge as the 19 th largest economy in the world, according to an HSBC report.
April 12, 2011
11 April 2011
Egypt will surpass Saudi Arabia as the region's largest economy by 2050 and emerge as the 19th largest economy in the world, according to an HSBC report.
When the going gets tough, the tough go long. HSBC's farsighted report on The World In 2050, looks into its crystal ball and makes some interesting predictions about economic trends in the future.
"Substantial progress up the global league table will be made by a host of other emerging economies - most notably, Mexico, Turkey, Indonesia, Egypt, Malaysia, Thailand, Colombia and Venezuela," said the report which was published in January 2011.
According to HSBC estimates, by 2050 Egypt's economy will emerge as the 19thlargest in the world, to reach $1,165 billion, surpassing Saudi Arabia's $1,128 billion. Iran will be the only other Middle East state in the world's 30 largest economies, with $732-billion.
The seismic shift in the global economy will be due to rapid demographics shifts, major improvements in emerging market infrastructure, education and spending patterns.
The small-population, ageing, rich economies in Europe are the biggest losers in the future. Switzerland and the Netherlands slip down the grid significantly, and Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway and Denmark drop out of the Top 30 altogether, notes HSBC, adding that 19 of the 30 largest economies in the world by 2050 will be what we currently know as 'emerging markets'.
In fact, the combined GDP of emerging economies will reach $55 trillion, beating the developed world's $49 billion GDP. Currently, the developed world's GDP stands at around $27 trillion, comfortably ahead of the emerging economies' GDP of $10 trillion.
Demographic change is even more dramatic outside of Europe. The working population will rise by 73% in Saudi Arabia and fall by 37% in Japan. That is reflected in these countries' differing fortunes in the top 30 table (below).
