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Suez Canal nine-month revenues down

CAIRO: Revenues from the Suez Canal remain low, recording a year-on-year decrease of 24 percent for the first nine months of 2009, Al-Gomhuria newspaper reported.

A year ago the canal drew $4.10 billion as compared to $3.13 billion in the nine months to September 2009. Throughout 2009, analysts and the media have bemoaned the slowdown in global trade for curtailing canal revenues, and the forecast for the rest of the year seems bleak as import demands remain sluggish.

Suez Canal revenues had dropped 18.5 percent to $382.5 million in the month of September, compared to $469.6 million in the same month last year, but were up from $371.8m in August, Reuters reported.

"The canal is the primary artery between east and west, and although economies in Asia face recovery, the US and Europe are still struggling," said Magdy Sobhy, economics analyst from Al-Ahram Center for Strategic and Political Studies.

"However," Sobhy adds, "despite the global economic slowdown Egypt has maintained positive GDP growth of almost 5 percent. The Central Bank of Egypt actually reported an increase in national reserves for July, indicating that even with a decline in international trade, Egypt is no longer as dependent on the canal as a source of income."

The significance of the canal to the Egyptian economy is greater than a question of revenue; it also provides an injection of foreign currency -- specifically euros and dollars -- that stabilizes the Egyptian pound and provides greater liquidity in the Egyptian market. Tourism, another important source of foreign currency, has also slowed down relatively this year.

Yet Egypt has managed to see the value of the pound actually increase. "We'll likely see the Egyptian pound grow stronger against the dollar," Sobhy added.

Much attention has also focused on Somali piracy in the Gulf of Aden as contributing to a decline in Suez Canal traffic, however Sobhy emphasizes that the media has blown up a phenomenon that is merely a simple question of economics.

"Piracy has been a factor in the past and remains one now. But this year's downturn in canal revenues is just a result of decreased trade," Sobhy asserted.

The specter of pirates has however compelled a recent report by Chatham House, a UK based think tank, to call for the creation of a coast guard in the Gulf of Aden and for increased international cooperation to discourage acts of piracy.

In his report "Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars," Chatham House's North Africa Ppecialist Roger Middleton warned that pirates could become a dangerous ingredient in "international terrorist networks." But their statistical effect on shipping remains low.

Pirates or no, international trade determines the income of the canal. And until the world recovers as a whole, revenues will stay low.

"Trade between the Middle East and Asia could not sustain the sort of canal revenues we saw last year. Eighty percent of canal traffic relies on destinations in the US and Europe," Sobhy answered in response to Daily News Egypt's suggestion that the world's economic power horses are migrating east and could perhaps sustain high canal revenues independently of the US and Europe.

He was quick to point out, "The Suez Canal Authority 's plans are still on track. As far as I know the agenda for allowing larger vessels to move through the canal is going forward. By 2014 the canal will be able to accommodate much larger ships, which will generate higher revenues."

Dredging the canal will allow larger ships, drawing 66 feet maximum, to pass through, permitting 99 percent of cargo shipping vessels and 64 percent of oil transport vessels to scrape through.

Yet the canal's makeover may prove futile to driving up revenue if the global economy does not amp up demand. Luckily, it seems Egypt may not have to worry as much about the international financial climate determining its economic security.

© Daily News Egypt 2009