Dec 01 2008 |
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Bahrain to outperform US, Europe in '09
MANAMA: Bahrain is set to beat the world's largest economies, including the US and Western Europe, with a forecast of 3.5 percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth next year, a senior economist said.Marios Maratheftis, regional head of research, Middle East and south Asia, at StanChart Bank, said the US would record minus 2 percent while Britain would see minus 4 percent GDP growth in 2009. Bahrain, according to the expert, and the GCC as a region will face a slowdown next year but will yet maintain positive growth as a bloc.
Bahrain will outperform the United Arab Emirates which is set to see a GDP growth of 2.7 percent and Saudi Arabia 2.2 percent next year. However, Qatar's economy will grow at a pace of 4.5 percent in 2009, he said.
Economies such as the US and Britain face significant structural problems that point to recession next year with either a period of stagnation or a modest policy-induced pickup in 2010. In contrast, he said, challenges seen across much of the emerging world are more cyclical in nature.
Maratheftis said a lot of the challenges currently facing the GCC were created by ultra-loose monetary conditions and the distortions and excesses they caused. Currency reform is not currently a priority.
There is, however, a need for the common GCC currency -- which can still be implemented in 2010 -- to be much more flexible.
By Mahmood Rafique
© Arab News 2008
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