What keeps US president Barack Obama's top spy awake at night? Cyber security fears, North Korea and extreme water and food stress in the Arab world.
"Many countries that are extremely important to US interests - which sit in already volatile areas of the world - are living with extreme water and food stress that can destabilize governments," James R. Clapper, President Barack Obama's top spy and Director of National Intelligence, told a Washington audience on March 12.
"This includes Afghanistan and Pakistan in South Asia, Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya in the Arab world, and many other nation-states across Africa and in our own hemisphere," he said, outlining the top security threats to the United States.
"Water challenges include not only problems with quality and quantity but with flooding. Some countries will almost certainly exert leverage over their neighbors to preserve their own water interests. And water infrastructure can be considered a viable target for terrorists."
The turmoil in the Arab world has brought a spike in threats to US interests, said Clapper, especially with the rise of new governments in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Libya, "along with ongoing unrest in Syria and Mali, provide openings for opportunistic individuals and groups."
Arab leaders in the region will also be paying heed to the warning.
The tragic assassination of US ambassador to Libya and other officials, and the attack on the US embassy in Cairo, and the wave of overt anti-American sentiment have raised alarm bells in Washington and its allies in the Arab world including the Gulf states.
"In these and other regions of the world, extremists can take advantage of diminished counterterrorism capabilities, porous borders and internal stresses, most especially a high proportion of unemployed young males," Clapper noted.
Indeed, the Middle East has taken a turn for the worse since 2010 with multiple flashpoints. Iran, Syria, Iraq, Palestine-Israel, Bahrain, Yemen and a range of uncertainty and political issues in much of North Africa, have further destabilized an already volatile region.
"Islamic actors have been the chief beneficiaries of the political openings, and extremist parties in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco will probably solidify their influence this year."
Waging war in cyberspace
The top US spy's concerns chimes with a risk report by management consultants Eurasia Group.
"It was barely more than a year ago that we were talking hopefully about an Arab spring. Middle East dictators were facing a wave of domestic dissent; international observers wondered whether it could be that the 'end of history'," said the group in its annual risk study. "That has morphed not into 'Arab winter,' where dictators rebound and consolidate power, but a long, hot, Arab summer--with radicalized movements, sectarian and Islamist, playing a much more important role."
However, Clapper singled out cyber-attacks as the greatest threat to American interests.
The director's comment comes a day after Obama chided China for its relentless virtual warfare on American assets.
"When it comes to the distinct threat areas, our statement this year leads with cyber. And it's hard to overemphasize its significance," the director noted. "Increasingly, state and non-state actors are gaining and using cyber expertise. They apply cyber techniques and capabilities to achieve strategic objectives by gathering sensitive information from public- and private-sector entities, controlling the content and flow of information, and challenging perceived adversaries in cyberspace.
Regional governments can appreciate that threat. Last year, the world's largest oil producer Saudi Aramco reported a major cyber security attack on its system.
"We know from painful experience, what happens to one company affects us all," Saudi Aramco chief Khalid Al-Fatah told an energy conference in Houston, Texas, on March 5. "It could be an industrial accident, a crisis of trust in corporations, or a security breach. As I know from last year's malicious cyber-attack on Saudi Aramco, there are a lot of bad guys lurking out there! We therefore must fortify our defenses - both physical and virtual - to protect ourselves and the stakeholders who are so dependent on us."
The cyber-attacks threat has jumped to the top of the agenda as countries, including the United States, wage virtual warfare.
In the United States, cyber-attacks have grown from 5,500 in 2006 to 48,600 in 2012, according to federal agencies.
The US Department of Homeland Security notes that energy companies reported 198 incidents of suspected cyber threats in 2011--a fourfold increase over 2010.
PriceWaterHouseCooper's Global State of Information Security Survey 2013 found that 17% of oil and gas respondents reported 10 to 49 security incidents in the last 12 months, a 42% rise over 2011.
"What's more, 11% reported 50 or more incidents, a decline from last year but up sharply over previous years," the management consultancy noted.
Of course, the United States is aware of the efficacy of cyber-attacks: The US and Israel were also reportedly behind the Stuxnet virus which attacked Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure in 2010.
The problem with Iran and Syria...
No American security briefing is complete without mentioning the Iranian threat.
The director blamed Tehran for exploiting the unrest in the Arab world to "spread influence abroad and undermine the United States and our allies."
While Western sanctions have weakened Iran's economic prospects, Clapper accused Iran of "providing weapons and training to Syrian forces and standing up a militia force there to fight the Syrian opposition."
"Iran's efforts to secure regional dominance, however, achieve limited results. And the fall of the Assad regime in Syria would be a major strategic loss for Tehran."
Other key threats identified by the director include North Korea's nuclear program, Syria's chemical weapons and lone wolves, domestic extremists and jihadist-inspired groups remain determined to attack western interests.
© alifarabia.com 2013
