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Jul 23 2012

Middle East Turmoil Pushes Prices Upward

Middle East Turmoil Pushes Prices Upward

Continuing turmoil in the Middle East is seen as the cause for last week�s rally in crude oil prices as traders fear that Iran may make some attempt to disrupt tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The price of WTI settled at $92.66/B on 19 July, while Brent closed at $107.80/B, reflecting a steady rise throughout the week. Intensifying violence in Syria and the bombing of an Israeli tourist bus in Bulgaria contributed to market concerns over future supplies despite the fact that for now there is sufficient crude available. Europe�s continuing economic problems and uninspiring US data, plus indications of a slowdown in China�s economy could not counter concerns for the wild cards at play in the Middle East.

In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report , released on 18 July, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 0.8mn barrels during the week ending 13 July. At 377.4mn barrels, US crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.8mn barrels and are at the lower limit of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.6mn barrels and are at the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.4mn barrels.

US crude oil imports averaged 8.9mn b/d, up by 311,000 b/d from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged about 8.9mn b/d, 405,000 b/d below the same four-week period last year. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.5mn b/d during the week, 236,000 b/d below the previous week�s average. Total products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged 18.9mn b/d, up by 0.4% compared to the similar period last year.

Settlement Prices For Benchmark Crudes ($/B)

Date

WTI

ICE Brent

DME Oman

ICE Dubai

OPEC Basket

13 July

87.10

102.40

98.59

99.93

99.10

16 July

88.43

103.55

99.07

101.18

99.93

17 July

89.22

104.00

101.20

101.81

101.29

18 July

89.87

105.16

101.27

102.97

101.73

19 July

92.66

107.80

103.19

105.61

103.71

© Copyright MEES 2012.


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