Morocco has seen the winds of the Arab Spring waft through its streets and its citizens have been swept up by the promise of more democracy and greater participation on the social, political and economic policies of the country.
While Moroccans are largely not averse to the presence of their King, they have protested for greater reforms. Now King Mohammed VI, who has been ruling the kingdom since 1999, has proposed a referendum on the new Constitution, which devolves some of his power, but allows him to retain control of the armed forces and over religious matters.
Will the Moroccan citizens be satisfied by the changes in the New Constitution, or will they want more? More importantly, the Kingdom has not outlined a clear agenda for economic reforms and policies, which is crucial to creating new jobs and keep the Moroccan economy globally relevant in an increasingly competitive environment.
The Moroccan King's speech comes at a time of unprecedented change in North Africa. With Tunisia and Egypt getting rid of their dictatorial regimes and Libya in the midst of a civil war, the Moroccan king is watching democracy take root in his neighbourhood.
While the Moroccan economy had fared better than most during the global financial crisis, but youth unemployment stands at around 30%, according to IMF estimates. Hence, the protests in the country led by the youth movement February 20 Movement to demand greater reform, democracy and, opportunities. Overall, unemployment stands at around 10%, which were exacerbated due to rising food and energy prices.
Unlike other North African states, King Mohammed VI remains relatively popular and with the speech that outlines political reforms, he has bought himself more time.
In March of this year, the King announced a package of reforms, including the formation of a committee to recommend constitutional changes by June to help secure an independent judiciary, a freely elected parliament, a government elected by parliament, and greater powers for political parties.
In his speech last week, the 47-year-old King built on the promise and hope to spearhead "a bedrock of the special Moroccan democratic development model -- a new historical bond between the throne and the people."
Here are the key points of the King's speech:
- A referendum on July 1 to shift the king's power to the prime minister and parliament.
- Future heads of government will come from political parties through parliamentary elections, "thereby confirming that the government will result from direct universal suffrage".
- Prime minister will be called "president of the government" with the power to dissolve parliament. Previously, only the King exercised that power.
- The prime minister can appoint government officials and form state policy.
- The king will no longer be considered "sacred", however, "the integrity of the person of the king should not be violated."
- The King still holds the title of Commander of the Faithful and retain his power over the military, and will remain the Supreme Commander and Chief of Staff of the Royal Armed Forces.
- Amazigh, the language of the Berber, will be considered an official language. The Hassani culture also got a special mention in the speech and the preservation of the various diverse cultures in Morocco were also acknowledged.
- The draft Constitution confirms the commitment to all human rights, especially the presumption of innocence and guaranteeing the conditions for a fair trial. It criminalizes torture, enforced disappearance, arbitrary detention and all forms of discrimination and inhuman, degrading practices.
- The draft Constitution also upholds freedom of the press and of expression and opinion, as well as the right to access information and to submit petitions.
The reaction to the King's speech has been mixed. While many people spilled into the streets in celebration, others have called for protests.
"The national coordinators (of the movement) have called for a demonstration for a truly democratic constitution and a parliamentary monarchy," a member of the Rabat wing said on June 18. "The plan as proposed by the king yesterday, does not respond to our demands for a true separation of powers," he said.
Azreki Daoud, editor of the North Africa Journal, says that although the speech provided some positive news, deflating political pressure, and moving Morocco one step forward, "many more steps are needed to fulfill and comply with the legitimate demands of Morocco's youth and the pro-democracy movement."
The pressure on Moroccan authorities to change has been building for some time and analysts say that the Arab Spring just sped the process.
Watching Tunisia's Ben Ali and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak unceremoniously ousted, and Moammer Gaddahi fighting not only for his rule, but also for his life, has compelled the King to act quickly. He can take comfort from the fact that none of the monarchies in the region have fallen, with the vulnerable Bahraini King also being propped by a Saudi-led GCC initiative.
In fact, Morocco's application to join the Gulf Co-operation Council is seen as a way to ensure royal support from the rich Gulf states to ensure the king remains in power - and the rule of monarchists remains intact in the region, even as their non-royal counterparts fall. Incidentally, the other state to apply for a membership into the exclusive Gulf club is Jordan - another monarchy.
Read story: GCC looks to spread influence
Economic Compulsion
According to the International Institute of Finance (IIF), Morocco's real GDP grew by 3.4% compared to 4.9% and 5.6% growth in 2009 and 2008 respectively. The international banking group expects growth to slip to 3.3% in 2011 as the regional economy takes a hit and the European Union, one of Morocco's key trading, goes through its own fiscal crisis.
"The country suffers from poverty and unemployment, as well as allegations of high-level corruption," says the IIF. "It faces a major challenge in reducing the high levels of unemployment and poverty. Higher and sustainable growth rates are needed to provide jobs for new entrants into the labour market and to improve living standards."
The growth needs to be broadly based, benefiting large segments of the population. Because of weak institutions, wealth concentration and lack of transparency, the benefits of growth are poorly distributed within Moroccan society.
Non-agricultural growth is expected to decelerate from 4.9% in 2010 to 3.0% in 2011, because of uncertainty about social and political events in the region, which is adversely impacting tourism and private investment, notes the IIF.
"Subsidies on food and petroleum products, combined with a stable exchange rate, have helped maintain inflation at a low 12-month rate of 1.6% in March 2011. Spending on subsidies and other social transfers is expected to rise to 4.5% of GDP in 2011. As a result, the fiscal deficit will remain large at 5.3% of GDP in 2011."
Even as revenue-generating avenues shrink, the country has seen its expenditure rise. Figures for the first quarter shows import costs have risen 24%, on the back of rising food and oil prices, although phosphate exports and remittance may narrow the fiscal deficit. However, in order to quell political dissent the government raised public-sector wages and minimum wages in both the public and private sectors, which will no doubt add to the fiscal burden.
Morocco may also benefit from the reform-based financial aid being instituted by the IMF, World Bank and other Western and Arab countries.
Tunisia and Egypt, the first two beneficiaries from the reform-based fund, expect to see their protest-ravaged economies get a new lease of life as these funds are deployed into the economy.
Morocco is hoping it can attract some of those funds and make up for the loss of tourism, foreign investments and exports during the regional turmoil. Like some of its neighbours, Morocco has also seen its citizens return from the Gulf and other North African states due to the contractions in the regional economy, which has added to the burden.
However, the road to economic and political reforms is long. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) argues that to improve its competitiveness and attract more investors, Morocco must enhance its institutional coordination and dialogue with non-governmental players, step up its efforts to ensure integrity and combat corruption, address the issues of economic informality, justice and access to land ownership property, and strengthen regional competitiveness, innovation and young people's skills.
"Over the past few years Morocco has gradually settled into a path of virtuous growth, but further efforts are needed," said OECD Deputy Secretary-General Richard Boucher, in a statement on June 7.
Morocco's competitiveness is an important issue for the oil-importing country. Several indicators show that gains in external competitiveness in Moroccan goods appear to have been eroded in recent years.
"According to the Trade Performance Index (TPI), Morocco falls behind Tunisia, Turkey, Poland, and Romania in basic manufacturing and textile exports. In addition, the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) ranks Morocco 73rd out of 133 countries, also placing it well behind the same group," notes the IIF. "The authorities have adopted a range of structural reforms to improve the business environment, strengthen physical infrastructure, and improve the competitiveness of key sectors.
King Mohammed's first step towards reforms, if followed through properly, can help ensure a smoother transition than witnessed in the neighbouring regimes, and may even serve as a case study for the more tightly governed Gulf states, which have brooked no thought of reform and public-inclusive legislation.
Conclusion
The June speech is a good start by the King, but the general consensus is that he needs to go further. More importantly, the authorities must initiate parallel economic reforms.
The next few months are crucial and have the potential of either derailing the economy or ensuring that relatively stability returns to the Kingdom. Even though the King has responded better than his counterparts to the domestic turmoil, the ball remains in his (royal) court.
© alifarabia.com 2011
