May 28 2012 |
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IMF Estimates UAE Real GDP Growth In 2011 At 4.9%
IMF Estimates UAE Real GDP Growth In 2011 At 4.9%
UAE real GDP in 2011 is estimated to have risen by 4.9%, according to the IMF Article IV consultation with the UAE, published on 16 May. “High oil prices and increased production, strong growth in Asia, and the UAE’s perceived safe haven status in the context of the regional turmoil” contributed to this rise. The IMF added that despite the continued weakness of the construction and real estate sectors following the 2009 crisis, real non-hydrocarbon growth picked up to an estimated 2.7% in 2011, supported by trade, logistics and tourism. For 2012 the IMF is projecting flat oil production, but non-oil growth is expected to strengthen to 3.5%.
The IMF notes that the Dubai World debt restructuring was completed but that several other troubled government-related entities (GREs) are still in the process of restructuring. GRE indebtedness, refinancing needs and reliance on foreign funding remain high, with about $30bn of GRE debt maturing this year and significant amount of debt falling due in 2014-15, the IMF added.
United Arab Emirates: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators, 2008–12 1
| Proj | ||||
2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | |
Output and Prices | (Annual % Change, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||
Nominal GDP (DhBn) | 1,156 | 993 | 1,093 | 1,323 | 1,419 |
Nominal GDP ($Bn) | 315 | 270 | 298 | 360 | 386 |
Real GDP (at factor cost) | 5.3 | -3.3 | 0.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 |
Real Oil and Gas GDP | 1.6 | -9.9 | -1.5 | 9.2 | 0.0 |
Real Non-Oil GDP | 6.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.5 |
CPI Inflation (average) | 12.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
Public Finances | (% of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) | ||||
Revenue | 39.0 | 25.7 | 28.7 | 33.3 | 34.6 |
Hydrocarbon | 31.2 | 17.5 | 21.4 | 27.4 | 28.5 |
Non-Hydrocarbon | 7.9 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 6.1 |
Expenditure and Net Lending | 22.3 | 38.0 | 30.8 | 30.4 | 26.9 |
Budget Balance | 16.8 | -12.3 | -2.1 | 2.9 | 7.7 |
Non-Hydrocarbon Balance 2 | -22.9 | -42 | -34.3 | -41.0 | -35.2 |
Monetary Sector | (Annual % Change) | ||||
Credit to Private Sector | 49.3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 3.1 |
Broad Money | 19.2 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 7.1 |
External Sector | ($Bn unless otherwise indicated) | ||||
Exports of Goods | 240 | 192 | 212 | 279 | 307 |
Oil and Gas | 103 | 68 | 75 | 112 | 122 |
Imports of Goods | -176 | -150 | -161 | -198 | -217 |
Current Account Balance | 24.8 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 33.3 | 40.0 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 7.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 9.2 | 10.3 |
Gross Official Reserves | 30.9 | 25.5 | 32.8 | 36.4 | 40.8 |
In months of next year imports of goods and services | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Real Effective Exchange Rate (2000=100) | 102.9 | 107.2 | 102.7 | 95.3 | - |
Source : UAE authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
1 Projections are based on information received through November 2009.
2 In percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP.
© Copyright MEES 2012.
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