Aug 10 2010 |
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Economic policy: In focus
Higher oil prices boost budget surplus
Data available from the state oil company, Qatar Petroleum ( QP ), the Cyprus-based Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) and the Qatar National Bank ( QNB ) suggest that Qatar's budget surplus in fiscal year 2010/11 (April 1st-March 31st) will be larger than projected by the Ministry of Finance. Based on an average Qatari oil price of US$55/barrel, the ministry had forecast a budget surplus of QR9.7bn (US$2.7bn), or 2.7% of GDP. However, data compiled by the QNB 's research department with MEES and QP reveal that Qatari oil prices during the first three months of the fiscal year (April-June) averaged US$77.65/b, or 41% higher than the budget's assumption. The half-year average (January-June) was US$76.58/b. Basing state budgets on a conservative oil price assumption is standard practice in all Gulf states (and in a few North Africa countries). In effect, this practice offers dynastic rulers sufficient leeway to ensure that they have off-budget provision for royal stipends and financing for their patronage networks, as well as resources to build up sovereign wealth funds for foreign acquisitions and non-oil investments. Qatar has recorded budget surpluses every year since 2000.
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