21 July 2011
Civil unrest in Syria has brought large swathes of the Syrian economy to a halt and has caused over 1800 deaths in nineteen weeks. The majority of these deaths are from the opposition protesters. Recently at the opposition conference in Istanbul, opposition leader, Wael al-Hafez called for civil disobedience throughout Syria in order to damage the economy even further. Opposition leaders believe that the continuing civil unrest will further weaken Assad's grip on the country. Civil unrest has made it very hard for Syrians to engage in day-to-day economic activities. The protesters believe that through civil unrest they might even be able to bring the business elite in Aleppo and Damascus to their side. These actions though also run the risk of drawing the business elite, fearing the chaos of the collapse of the regime, even closer to Assad.
Maintaining a stable economy is essential for President Assad to stay in power. The current situation has scared off foreign investment and tourism. Tourism makes up 12% of Syria's GDP. Exports are also down, and even trade between Syria and its neighbors has floundered. Syria will most likely experience a contraction in GDP. All of these factors will contribute to greater unemployment, which currently stands at 10%. Unemployment and lack of future prospects are fueling social unrest in the Arab world just as much as dissatisfaction with authoritarian regimes. More unemployment will fuel even more anger towards the regime. Without a stable economy, Assad will be unable to pay his security forces. Assad needs the loyalty of the security forces to insure the survival of the regime.
In the event that the regime is unable to pay their security forces, it is likely that the regime will attempt to borrow money from the Syrian elite. Such an action could cause the elite to lose confidence in the regime's ability to stay in power and cause them to defect to the opposition. So far though, even the Sunni members of Syria's elite have remained loyal to the regime. The regime has seen very few high level defections. Civil disobedience though is coming from the lower ranks of the security forces and army. There are reports of low ranking soldiers defecting and even refusing orders to fire upon their fellow Syrians.
© Yalla Finance 2011
Civil unrest in Syria has brought large swathes of the Syrian economy to a halt and has caused over 1800 deaths in nineteen weeks. The majority of these deaths are from the opposition protesters. Recently at the opposition conference in Istanbul, opposition leader, Wael al-Hafez called for civil disobedience throughout Syria in order to damage the economy even further. Opposition leaders believe that the continuing civil unrest will further weaken Assad's grip on the country. Civil unrest has made it very hard for Syrians to engage in day-to-day economic activities. The protesters believe that through civil unrest they might even be able to bring the business elite in Aleppo and Damascus to their side. These actions though also run the risk of drawing the business elite, fearing the chaos of the collapse of the regime, even closer to Assad.
Maintaining a stable economy is essential for President Assad to stay in power. The current situation has scared off foreign investment and tourism. Tourism makes up 12% of Syria's GDP. Exports are also down, and even trade between Syria and its neighbors has floundered. Syria will most likely experience a contraction in GDP. All of these factors will contribute to greater unemployment, which currently stands at 10%. Unemployment and lack of future prospects are fueling social unrest in the Arab world just as much as dissatisfaction with authoritarian regimes. More unemployment will fuel even more anger towards the regime. Without a stable economy, Assad will be unable to pay his security forces. Assad needs the loyalty of the security forces to insure the survival of the regime.
In the event that the regime is unable to pay their security forces, it is likely that the regime will attempt to borrow money from the Syrian elite. Such an action could cause the elite to lose confidence in the regime's ability to stay in power and cause them to defect to the opposition. So far though, even the Sunni members of Syria's elite have remained loyal to the regime. The regime has seen very few high level defections. Civil disobedience though is coming from the lower ranks of the security forces and army. There are reports of low ranking soldiers defecting and even refusing orders to fire upon their fellow Syrians.
© Yalla Finance 2011
