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Mar 17 2011

Lebanon continues to improve in terms of creditworthiness

17 March 2011

BEIRUT: In its semiannual survey on the creditworthiness of 178 countries, Institutional Investor magazine ranked Lebanon in the 105th place worldwide and 14th among 20 countries in the Middle East and North Africa region in the March 2011 survey.

The country’s creditworthiness ranking improved from the previous survey conducted six months ago, as its global ranking progressed by seven notches and its regional ranking went up by one spot. The report was carried by Bank Audi Lebanon Weekly Monitor.

“This is probably due to the fact that Lebanon has stood resilient to the current political crises taking place in the Middle East and its creditworthiness is largely backed by the country’s banking sector, which continues to stand resilient, weathering off any ensuing negative repercussions,” the report said.

It is worth noting that in this survey, the country continued in its progress, as in September 2010, the country’s creditworthiness ranking advanced significantly. Then, Lebanon’s global ranking leapt four notches upward from 116th in September 2009, as the survey was previously conducted on an annual basis. Its regional ranking is also currently tracing an upward trajectory, as in September 2010 it also edged one notch upward.

The global rankings of most MENA countries fell significantly in March 2011 relative to September 2010, in line with the deterioration in political conditions. Lebanon was among the very few MENA countries that witnessed a ranking upgrade in the past six months. Specifically, Lebanon saw the second highest increase in its global creditworthiness ranking, following Syria (up 15 notches).

The survey rates creditworthiness on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 representing countries with the least chance of debt default. Lebanon received a score of 34.3 points in March 2011, improving significantly from its score of 32.5 points in September 2010. Its score progressed by 1.8 points, or 5.5 percent, following a rise of 10.5 percent or 3.8 points in September 2010, in line with the continuous improvement in Lebanon’s ranking. However, Lebanon’s score remained below the global and the MENA averages of 46.5 points and 52.3 points, respectively.

However, the increase in Lebanon’s score was higher than the 0.3 point increase in the global average, and compares well to the decline of 0.4 points in the average score of the MENA region. Lebanon also witnessed the third highest annual score increase among its MENA peers, following the UAE (up 4.3 points) and Jordan (up 1.8 points).

According to Institutional Investor, the magazine did not incorporate the full impact of the political turmoil in the region in this survey, as the outcome of demonstrations is yet to be seen. As such, the 0.4 point decline in the MENA score undermines the severity of the events in the region. The study noted that half of the respondents in the region anticipate negative economic repercussions in the short- to medium-term, while the rest have neutral or positive expectations. Globally, the modest score increase largely reflects gains in developed nations. However, growing debts cloud the long-term outlook. – The Daily Star

© Copyright The Daily Star 2011.

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