The biggest surprise is the fracturing of the Shia political establishment. Oppressed under Saddam Hussein, the majority Shias grabbed power in the first free elections and held on despite endless crises. Their governments benefited from sectarian unity, which they maintained through bullying and haggling. But on August 24th the leading Shia party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and some of its allies dumped Mr Maliki, another Shia. They formed a new slate, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), that will oppose his Dawa party in national elections due to be held in January.

The catalyst for this was the Baghdad bombing last week that destroyed the foreign and finance ministries, killing at least 95 people. Mr Maliki had styled himself as the guarantor of a safe and stable Iraq, claiming to have faced down militants, pushed back Iranians and sent Americans to their barracks. In the past year that has made him surprisingly popular. A virtual political unknown four years ago, he thought re-election was within reach. But over the past week, Iraqi television has endlessly replayed video footage of a lorry inching towards the foreign ministry and blowing up. Iraqis call it their "9/11" tape. Within days Mr Maliki lost the backing of his coalition.

The Shia elders had never liked or trusted him. They heaved him into office in 2006 simply because they could not agree on championing one of their own. They hoped for a malleable weakling; instead they got a bold but impulsive leader. The aftermath of the foreign-ministry bombing was a rare chance to cut Mr Maliki down to size, leaving the former bead-seller from the Damascus souk with no other choice but to strike out on his own.

Mr Maliki has thus announced a plan to set up a multi-confessional coalition, making a virtue of his predicament. After alienating Kurds and Sunnis for the past three years, he is now trying to charm them. This week he met tribal sheikhs from Anbar province, who initially supported the anti-Shia insurgency; he also told the once-persecuted Kurds that he "feels their pain".

Nonetheless, Mr Maliki has little chance of retaining the premiership next year. In provincial elections this January, his party did well. But even then it scored a national average of only 15%. His consolation is that the parties which now make up the new INA won just 17%.

The new alliance is well funded but suffers from having no clear leader. Critics say it is little more than a vehicle for ambitious party barons, most of whom despise each other. Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a former prime minister, hankers after a return to office. "If the Iraqi people want it, I will not let them down," he said. In his way stands Adel Abdul Mahdi, today's vice-president. But he has been hurt by a $7m bank robbery involving some of his security guards. A compromise candidate could be Ahmed Chalabi, the shadowy former Pentagon ally who is now close to Iran, or Qasem Daoud, a former national-security adviser who is valued by Americans and clerics alike. Mr Daoud has been openly critical of the prime minister for his decision to remove concrete blast walls in Baghdad days before the recent attack.

Mr Maliki's Dawa party and the INA could still make up, but the gulf appears deep. Mr Maliki insists on being the sole candidate for prime minister. That would allow him, if elected, to cement Dawa's position ahead of the more hardline sectarian parties. Mr Maliki's best chance now is to suppress the Sunni insurgency once more and win back popular support. As a first step, he replaced his intelligence chief and broadcast the confession of the alleged mastermind behind the ministry bombing.

Yet much more is required. Iraqis have been rattled by the renewed violence. In Baghdad the streets are half-empty and shops close early. None of the political parties has so far worked out how to cater to public fear. Should they switch to tried and tested sectarian politics, or show leadership by ditching it altogether? Whoever finds the answer is likely to win the next election and dominate post-American Iraq. But for the moment, all is in flux.

© The Economist 2009

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