04 July 2009

First person by Marco Vicenzino

The 1989 Taif Accord which ended Lebanon's Civil War also ended Christian dominance of national politics and drastically reduced presidential powers, through which Christian hegemony was constitutionally expressed. However, the symbolism of Lebanon's presidency can still carry significant political weight if its office-holder astutely uses it to extend his influence. By tipping the electoral scale in favor of the victorious pro-Western March 14 coalition, real Christian influence resurfaced for the first time in post-Civil War Lebanon. Ironically, it was lost through bullets and partially restored through the ballot box but will never return to its pre-Civil War status.

Assuming office as a compromise candidate, President Michel Sleiman has the opportunity to alter the national balance of power by shifting Lebanon toward a more nationalist, and less sectarian, character after the recent election. Sectarian differences and realities will always remain but can be reduced over time. To do so successfully, Sleiman must begin by uniting Lebanon's Christians and gain recognition over time as its chief representative.

Sleiman's personal assets include a moderate tone and pragmatic manner. As a retired general, he is also clearly identified with the military, one of the few respected institutions in Lebanon. The president must use these basic traits to begin serving as a uniting factor not only for Christians but to a broad range of secular Lebanese who seek a more normal state of affairs at home and abroad.

In theory, the president's role is largely ceremonial which prevents him from entering the political fray. He must avoid doing so publicly. However, he must play an influential role in overcoming political polarization and institutional gridlock. Through personal example, he must become the national spokesman for greater standards of transparency and accountability and help guarantee a better sense of popular representation in government.

Over time, his political capital can accumulate and gradually allow him to alter the political landscape - not so much to create a third force in Lebanese politics but to act as a constructive power-broker in positively shaping Lebanon's future. In his own peculiar way, Lebanon's president could emerge as a minor statesman in the region but a larger statesman in the wider world, particularly through subtle help from major powers.

Behind the scenes, Sleiman must influence the appointment of a more technocratic, and less political, cabinet of experts with vast international experience. This can help defuse political animosities, prevent a repeat of past crises and increase public morale, particularly among the young. Helping to ensure greater meritocracy in government can help overturn the prevailing popular cynicism toward politics. A common view in Lebanon is that nothing will change. Through results and efficiency, technocratic cabinet ministers can gain greater credibility. This can further increase their ability to influence the political process over time with public support.

The media and public activism will also play a crucial role. The predominant belief is that powerful interests own the media through which they exert influence. Through the use of current information technology, a young tech-savvy generation can help alter the popular debate, the balance of power in the media and the overall political process by holding public officials to account. In addition, responsible coverage by international media can prove effective. After all, most Lebanese can access global outlets through satellite television, radio, internet and print.

By influencing the selection of a more technocratic cabinet, Sleiman will also contribute to Lebanon's pressing economic needs. Despite a modest performance in recent times, Lebanon's economy cannot escape the need for fundamental structural reform to ensure long-term sustainability. Economic stability can also contribute to the long-term political stability necessary to attract greater foreign direct investment. It will be difficult to build a viable economy simply on bank deposits. In times of domestic and regional instability capital flight is always possible as is human flight which greatly threatens Lebanon's future. The departure of its prized young talent seeking opportunities elsewhere undercuts long-term growth.

Looming large over this cautiously optimistic analysis are shadow forces responsible for assassinating those daring to speak out for change. Inaction due to fear will only ensure the status quo, embolden these criminals and validate their actions. Ultimately, change in Lebanon can only take place through collective courage and action across the confessional spectrum. 

Marco Vicenzino is the director of Global Strategy Project, Washington, DC.

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