27 Jul 2012 (124 Pages)
Includes 3 FREE Quarterly Updates.
The political situation in Bahrain remains fractious, as evidenced by the protests against the Formula One racing event in the country in April. Nevertheless, we forecast an economic expansion of 2.5% in 2012.
Growth in volumes at the Khalifa bin Salman Port are forecast to exceed GDP growth, with container handling set to grow by 8.0%, supported by a strong household consumption outlook for the country. Whether the throughput demands the capacity of the facility however, much less a further expansion to 4mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), remains to be seen.
Headline Industry Data:Growth in Khalifa bin Salman Port (KBSP) total tonnage throughput forecast at 8.5% in 2012, with average annual growth forecast at 7.0% between 2012 and 2016. Growth in KBSP container throughput forecast at 8.0% in 2012, with average annual growth of 4.9% over our forecast period. Real growth in total trade forecast at 14.0% in 2012 and to average 7.2% over the medium term.
Key Industry Trends:
ASRY Sales Rise 13%Bahrain-based Arab Shipbuilding and Repair Yard Company (ASRY) posted a 13% year-on-year (yo-y) increase in sales to US$168.76mn in 2011, compared with US$149.17mn in the year-ago period. The result was announced during the company's 37th ordinary meeting, which was attended by the representatives of the shareholding companies.
New Terminal On The Horizon:
According to a statement made by Bahraini energy minister Abdul Hussain bin Ali Mirza at the Middle East Petroleum & Gas Conference (MPGC) in Bahrain in May, the small Gulf state will award the contract for its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal before the end of the year, though it will not be ready until 2014 or 2015. There were nine bids for the terminal according to the minister, includingRoyal Dutch Shell.
BASREC Posts BHD2.6mn Profit In 2011
Bahrain-basedBahrain Ship Repairing and Engineering Company (BASREC) has reported an increase in full-year profit for the fourth consecutive year to BHD2.6mn (US$7mn) in 2011, up from BHD2.2mn in 2010. Earnings per share jumped to BHD0.16 (US$0.41), compared with BHD0.14 (US$0.33) a year earlier.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Should the government fail to address some of the protestors' main grievances, Bahrain's political crisis could rumble on for longer than expected, with the risk of the opposition becoming radicalised increasing by the day. It remains unclear what impact 2011's political crisis will have on the country's long-term economic outlook. Should investors begin to reassess the costs of doing business in the country, and begin relocating to Dubai or Doha, Bahrain's growth outlook would suffer accordingly. All of this could add downside risk to our port throughput forecasts for Bahrain. Other risks come from tension over Iran, not least its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, while a longer-term issue is the number of ports being developed in the Gulf region with an eye towards transhipment trade.
On the upside, the redevelopment of the Mina Salman port could see throughput levels experience considerably higher growth thanBMI is currently forecasting at the facility. The port began operating in its new capacity in January 2012. However, an underperforming construction sector could stall any sizeable growth in volumes through the facility.