Wednesday, Aug 08, 2012
By Francis Bray, CFTe MSTA
A DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
LONDON (Dow Jones)--Rolling 24-hour chart levels:
Futures: BUND GILT EURIBOR SHORT STG
Sep Sep Jun Jun
Previous Close 142.31 120.74 99.670 99.440
3 Day Trend Bearish Bearish Range Range
Weekly Trend Bearish Bearish Bullish Bearish
3rd Resistance 143.64 121.92 99.825 99.550
2nd Resistance 143.08 121.71 99.740 99.540
1st Resistance 142.66 121.29 99.725 99.500
Pivot* 142.61 120.99 99.687 99.460
1st Support 142.17 120.24 99.655 99.420
2nd Support 141.98 120.13 99.610 99.330
3rd Support 141.55 119.69 99.585 99.310
Intraday BUND: The bear wave structure has created a new minimum downside target at 141.15, following Tuesday's push and close below 142.64. The Aug. 2 high at 145.17 has been confirmed as a lower high, and closer targets at 141.98 and 141.55 will be the focus during Wednesday's session. The large two-month head-and-shoulders top developing on the daily chart suggests 141.15 will also be met this week, exposing 140.00. Corrective gains are restricted by resistance at 143.08, which is protected by 142.66.
Weekly chart BUND trend: Bearish.
Intraday GILT: Pivotal support in the 120.13/120.24 area is at risk, as Tuesday's push and close below 120.80 puts bears in control. However, the structure of the bear wave from the July 23 contract high at 122.45 suggests a deeper setback to the 119.43/119.69 support cluster is possible, before the likelihood of forging a strong base. Only a recovery above 121.29 would provide stability, opening 121.71 and 121.92.
Weekly chart GILT trend: Bearish.
Intraday EURIBOR June 2013: This week's low at 99.655 is back under pressure, and a downside break is favored. Monday's high at 99.725 is defending the contract high at 99.740 resolutely, and a push below 99.655 would expose the July 27 higher low at 99.610 and a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 99.585. Keeping support at 99.655 intact would keep the short-term action trapped within a bullish rectangle phase beneath 99.740.
Weekly chart EURIBOR trend: Bullish.
Intraday SHORT STERLING June 2013: This week's low at 99.420 is under renewed pressure, following Tuesday's setback from 99.500. As downside momentum is on the increase, a break below 99.420 is expected, generating risk to the 99.310/99.330 measured target area in the process. Only a recovery above 99.500 would negate the bearish outlook.
Weekly chart SHORT STG trend: Bearish.
* The pivot is the sum of the high, low and close divided by 3.
For more technical analysis see: Dow Jones Newswires, N/DJTA; Bloomberg, NI DJTA; and Reuters key word search "INSI-DJN"
By Francis Bray; Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)207 842 9249; francis.bray@dowjones.com
Francis Bray is Dow Jones' chief technical analyst for Europe, and has worked as a technical analyst and trader for 20 years in London, Barcelona and Guernsey.
Data provided by CQG International Ltd.
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-08-12 0607GMT