Wednesday, May 30, 2012
0810 GMT [Zawya Dow Jones]--The economic impact of a Greek exit from the EU would be real but mitigated in the Middle East and North Africa region, says Standard Chartered Bank, particularly in those parts of the region that are in a significantly stronger position now, like the six GCC economies. Says asset bubbles in the GCC have already burst, and unsustainable credit booms are long over. Notes that while the main channel of contagion will be via trade/exports, it is Asia that is now the GCC's main export market, while the EU represents only 7%. "A collapse in Asian demand, coupled with already muted growth in the West, would certainly translate into lower oil prices and output," SCB says. Cautions too that severe effects would likely come through financing channels, but that an oil revenues cushion as well as possible Asian financing sources would mitigate the EU banks' deleveraging.
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