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30 July 2012
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Volume 55, Issue 31 - NEWS BY COUNTRY |
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Northern Exports Continue Grim Trajectory
Iraqi southern exports continue at recent impressive 2mn b/d plus levels and oil prices have recovered somewhat from June lows, but Baghdad is increasingly and dangerously reliant on its Basra export outlet. Northern exports for the last two quarters have averaged below 400,000 b/d. And since the cessation of exports from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on 1 April, northern flows have fallen still further. June�s 317,000 b/d, a second straight month where northern exports made up less than 15% per cent of total exports, was the lowest northern export figure since November 2008 (MEES 11 June).
Continued tensions with the Kurds and an explosion on the pipeline to the port of Ceyhan shut down flows, albeit temporarily. This means that northern exports are unlikely to bounce back significantly this month. Southern exports this month up to 25 July were running at healthy levels, with almost 2.24mn b/d having completed loading, according to MEES data. Barring an oil price collapse, hydrocarbon revenues look set to break records this year, but Baghdad remains vulnerable to any disruptions to its southern production and export infrastructure.
Iraqi Crude Exports And Revenues
Month
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Southern Exports Mn b/d
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Northern Exports Mn b/d
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Total Mn b/d
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Southern Oil Revenue $Bn
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Northern Oil Revenue $Bn
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Average Revenue $Bn
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Total Revenues $Bn
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Av Iraqi Crude Price $/B
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2009 Average
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1.441
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0.469
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1.910
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2.606
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0.845
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3.452
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41.418
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58.94
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2010 Average
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1.479
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0.413
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1.892
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3.390
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0.963
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4.353
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52.238
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75.63
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2011 Average
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1.711
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0.455
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2.166
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5.444
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1.472
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6.916
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82.988
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104.96
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Q4 2010 Average
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1.517
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0.401
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1.918
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3.768
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1.021
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4.789
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14.366
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81.33
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Q1 2011 Average
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1.712
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0.461
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2.173
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5.044
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1.394
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6.438
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19.313
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98.78
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Q2 2011 Average
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1.703
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0.510
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2.213
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5.625
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1.703
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7.328
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21.985
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109.26
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Q3 2011 Average
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1.735
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0.418
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2.153
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5.627
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1.391
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7.018
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21.054
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106.20
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Q4 2011 Average
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1.692
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0.430
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2.122
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5.480
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1.398
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6.878
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20.636
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105.61
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Q1 2012 Average
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1.755
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0.390
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2.145
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6.052
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1.345
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7.397
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22.190
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113.33
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Q2 2012 Average
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2.095
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0.358
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2.454
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6.568
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1.136
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7.704
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23.113
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103.31
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Jan-12
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1.713
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0.394
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2.106
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5.813
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1.310
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7.123
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109.08
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Feb-12
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1.637
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0.376
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2.013
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5.348
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1.247
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6.595
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112.93
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Mar-12
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1.916
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0.400
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2.316
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6.995
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1.477
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8.472
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117.99
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Apr-12
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2.116
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0.393
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2.510
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7.449
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1.346
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8.795
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116.79
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May-12
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2.087
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0.365
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2.452
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6.643
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1.188
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7.831
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103.04
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Jun-12
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2.083
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0.317
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2.400
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5.613
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0.874
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6.487
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90.10
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Note
: For years/quarters columns are monthly averages, except in case of "Total Revenues� column.
Source
: Iraqi Oil Ministry. © Copyright MEES 2012.
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| © Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) 2013. |
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