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IEA Sees Global Demand Rising To 90Mn B/D During 2012
The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its projection for global oil demand during 2012 to 90.0mn b/d in its latest monthly Oil Market Report
, released on 11 May. This is compared with a revised estimate of 89.2mn b/d for 2011 oil consumption. The Paris-based agency said non-OECD countries would account for all of the growth, with demand rising from 43.5mn b/d to 44.8mn b/d, and that demand in OECD countries would fall from 45.6mn b/d to 45.2mn b/d.
The IEA said data for the month “paints a marginally tighter picture” than in the last report, stating that the call on OPEC crude averages 30.8mn b/d for the second half of 2012. “Slightly stronger global oil demand coincides with a non-OPEC supply prognosis trimmed by an average of 200,000 b/d for the second half of the year,” the report said , adding that with OPEC production at 31.8mn b/d in April and OECD stocks no
longer at previous tight levels, “some of the nervousness which drove prices to record highs in March has receded.” Noting this, the IEA said there is no room for complacency: “The path of market fundamentals for the rest of the year remains highly uncertain and geopolitical risks will likely continue to keep prices high. As always, the IEA will monitor market conditions and stands ready to act if supply conditions warrant it.”
Global oil supply increased by 600,000 b/d to 91.0mn b/d in April and OPEC crude production accounted for more than 70% of the increase, the report said, noting that compared to a year ago, global output is 3.9mn b/d higher, 90% of which is from OPEC crude and NGLs. Non-OPEC supply rose by 100,000 b/d in April and OPEC output increased by 410,000 b/d to 31.85mn b/d, with Iraq, Nigeria and Libya providing 85% of the increase. It said the call on OPEC crude would average 30.3mn b/d for 2012. “OPEC has increased output for seven months running and volumes are now nearly 3mn b/d above April 2011 levels,” the report said.
Total OECD industry oil inventories increased by 13.5mn barrels in March to 2.649bn barrels, in contrast with a five-year average decline of 10.2mn barrels, the IEA reported, adding that commercial oil stocks also rose above the five-year average for the first time since May 2011. Days of forward demand cover rose by half a day to 60.3 days, 3.0 days above the five-year average. Preliminary data indicate a 5.1mn barrels increase in April OECD industry inventories, compared with a five-year average 19.4mn barrels build.
IEA Supply/Demand Estimates
(Mn B/D)
|
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
|
|
Year
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
4Q
|
Year
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
4Q
|
Year
|
World Oil Demand
|
88.4
|
89.2
|
88.0
|
89.7
|
89.9
|
89.2
|
89.5
|
88.6
|
90.7
|
91.1
|
90.0
|
- OECD
|
46.2
|
46.3
|
44.5
|
45.9
|
45.8
|
45.6
|
45.5
|
43.9
|
45.6
|
45.6
|
45.2
|
- Non-OECD
|
42.2
|
42.8
|
43.4
|
43.7
|
44.2
|
43.5
|
43.9
|
44.7
|
45.0
|
45.5
|
44.8
|
- Of which FSU
|
4.4
|
4.5
|
4.6
|
4.8
|
4.8
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
4.7
|
4.9
|
4.9
|
4.8
|
- Of which China
|
9.1
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
9.3
|
9.7
|
9.5
|
9.9
|
9.9
|
9.7
|
10.2
|
9.9
|
Non-OPEC Supply
|
52.6
|
52.7
|
52.3
|
52.6
|
53.3
|
52.7
|
53.3
|
52.8
|
53.3
|
53.9
|
53.3
|
- Of which FSU
|
13.5
|
13.6
|
13.6
|
13.5
|
13.6
|
13.6
|
13.8
|
13.8
|
13.6
|
13.8
|
13.7
|
- Of which China
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
4.0
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.2
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OPEC NGLs
|
5.3
|
5.7
|
5.7
|
5.8
|
5.9
|
5.8
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
6.5
|
6.5
|
6.4
|
Implied Call on OPEC Crude
|
30.4
|
30.8
|
29.9
|
31.3
|
30.8
|
30.7
|
30.0
|
29.6
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30.9
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30.7
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30.3
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Adjusted Call on OPEC Crude
|
29.4
|
30.2
|
29.0
|
30.6
|
30.8
|
30.2
|
31.0
|
29.0
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30.3
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30.1
|
30.1
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Actual OPEC Crude Prod.
|
29.3
|
29.9
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29.3
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29.8
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30.2
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29.8
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31.2
|
|
|
|
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Supply/Demand Balance
|
-1.1
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-0.9
|
-0.6
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-1.5
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-0.5
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-0.9
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1.2
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|
|
|
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Note:
Figures may not add due to rounding. © Copyright MEES 2012.
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