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23 April 2012
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Volume 55, Issue 17 - ENERGY FUNDAMENTALS |
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OPEC Stays Bearish On Economy
“The outlook for the global economy remains fragile,” states OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report
(MOMR
). The report held its estimate on oil demand and the ‘call on OPEC’ broadly unchanged from the previous MOMR
, but any further downward revisions on 2012 global economic growth is likely to impact on these. The report edged down its projection on 2012 global economic growth by 0.1% to 3.3%. This compares to 4.1% in last June’s edition of the MOMR
. A lack of clarity on the economy and the impact of high prices was complicating projections for demand. “US oil demand remains a key uncertainty to the existing demand assessment. The upcoming driving season might be affected by high retail gasoline prices and the pace of the economic recovery,” the MOMR
said.
Also noteworthy, for the first time OPEC has published production data given by its member countries. There was no explanation as to why this is being done, but the figures show some interesting disparity with secondary source data. Unsurprisingly, Venezuelan and Iranian figures trended several hundred thousand barrels a day higher than secondary source estimates. One surprise was Qatari assessments. These typically were running below 750,000 b/d, or over 50,000 b/d lower than secondary sources. The MOMR
’s supply estimate is based on an average of secondary sources and as such these figures will not affect OPEC’s own projections. The figures show Algeria and Ecuador apparently both failing to provide production data for March.
OPEC’s Summarized Oil Supply/Demand Balance For 2011
(Mn B/D)
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2010
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1Q11
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2Q11
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3Q11
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4Q11
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2011
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(a) World Oil Demand
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86.95
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87.54
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86.36
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88.40
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88.80
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87.78
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Non-OPEC Supply
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52.30
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52.72
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52.00
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52.12
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52.73
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52.39
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OPEC NGLs and Non-Conventionals
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4.90
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5.12
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5.26
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5.37
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5.42
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5.29
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(b) Total Supply Excluding OPEC Crude
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57.21
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57.84
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57.25
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57.49
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58.14
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57.68
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Difference (a-b)
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29.74
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29.71
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29.11
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30.91
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30.66
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30.10
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OPEC Crude Oil Production
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29.25
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29.62
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29.18
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29.91
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30.39
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29.78
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Balance
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-0.49
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-0.09
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0.07
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-1.00
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-0.27
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-0.33
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Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
OPEC’s Summarized Oil Supply/Demand Balance For 2012
(Mn B/D)
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2011
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1Q12
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2Q12
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3Q12
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4Q12
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2012
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(a) World Oil Demand
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87.78
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87.88
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87.42
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89.49
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89.74
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88.64
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Non-OPEC Supply
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52.39
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52.81
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52.68
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52.97
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53.43
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52.97
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OPEC NGLs and Non-Conventionals
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5.29
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5.50
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5.61
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5.71
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5.79
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5.65
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(b) Total Supply Excluding OPEC Crude
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57.68
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58.31
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58.29
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58.68
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59.21
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58.62
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Difference (a-b)
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30.10
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29.57
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29.13
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30.81
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30.52
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30.01
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OPEC Crude Oil Production
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29.78
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31.11
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Balance
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-0.33
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1.54
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Totals may not add up due to independent rounding. © Copyright MEES 2012.
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| © Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) 2013. |
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