Every time I pump gas in my car and look at the value of total sale displayed by the gas pump, I ask myself this question: who is behind the high gasoline prices at a time when oil and gasoline inventories are both at the upper levels of their five-year average? Rightly or wrongly, Iran gets the blame as Iraq did before, Libya after that and Syria today. The news media finds it easy to blame Iran, Iraq, Libya or Syria. But it does not dare to say the truth by identifying the real culprit. This culprit is not the fundamental supply and demand factor. The culprit is a political factor. Israel the bully is the first culprit and the first political beast that should be blamed for the current oil prices. The media cannot dare to say that.
Why is Israel the political culprit? Israel in public and behind the scenes is exerting a great deal of pressure on the United States to corner Iran and impose more and more sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The recent disruption in Iran’s’ financial system and the boycott of its oil exports are engineered by Israel. The right wing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is manipulating President Obama by threading to bomb Iran alone if the United States does not act. In turn, the United States is pressuring Western Europe to go long. Iran, feeling the pressure of sanctions, is threatening to cut oil exports to Western Europe and to close the Strait of Hormuz if it can export its oil.
The White House is vulnerable to pressure this year because of the November 2012 elections. President Obama is very concerned that Netanyahu would unilaterally attack Iran and drag the United States into a new and more devastating war in the Middle East. Such a war, if it happens, will send the oil price to more than $150 a barrel. Such a scenario would shave off 1% or more of economic growth in the United States and may stop the budding economic recovery in its track. If the economic recovery brings 1% or less economic growth rate, there will no jobs created and new people will lose their jobs. Under this scenario, President Obama will lose the election in November. Obama’ current chances now to win re-election may be more than 90%.
My advice to President Obama, as was my advice to President Bush before he invaded Iraq, is to calm things down and to scuttle Netanyahu’s evil plans of having a new war in the Middle East conducted again by the United States on behalf of Israel. If the Iraq war took eight years, a war with Iran may take double that time. The Iranians have a stronger sense of persecution and would fight for many years to come. Don't listen to people like R. James Woolsey, the former director of the CIA who think that bombing Iran will solve the problem. We should learn from what the CIA did when it overthrew the Mossaddeq regime in 1954. Twenty five years later, Iran retaliated with a vengeance.
For Iran, the Islamic Republic should not repeat the mistake made by Saddam. He should have come clean in front of the world since he knew very well that he destroyed all of his weapons of mass destruction. Iran is making impressive technological advances very year and has a bright future. The oil market is moving into its favor every year. Iran should spoil Netanyahu’ evil scheme of having another war in the Middle East. Let Obama have another four years, let the oil price go back to the $80-$90 band and let Iran and the Middle East have more peace. Let Netanyahu go to ell.
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