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A researcher's viewpoint on the regional economies.
Name Shawkat Hammoudeh
Current Position Educator
Company Name Le Bow College of Business, Drexel University
Sector Energy
Age 56
Academic Background Hammoudeh received a post graduate degree in Finance from Drexel University and a Ph.D in Economics from The University of Kansas. His dissertation title was "Optimal Oil Pricing Policy for Saudi Arabia"
Hammoudeh did his MA in Economics from University of Kansas with a minor in Political Science. Hammoudeh did his BA from University of Baghdad.
Biography * 1988-89 & 1991UN Development Program, Amman - Jordan.
* 1983-1988 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) Kuwait
Senior Economist.
* 1981-1983 Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR), Kuwait Associate Research Scientist.
* 1972 – 1975 Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jordan, Diplomatic Attaché, Amman, Jordan.

HONORS, AWARDS AND GRANTS RECEIVED
* Received Bennet S. LeBow College of Business’s Summer Research Grant "Dynamic Relationships among Petroleum Prices and Oil-Sensitive Stock Markets,” summer 2002.
* Received Bennet S. LeBow College of Business’s Summer Research Grant “Empirical Exploration of the World Oil Price Under the Target Zone Model,” summer 2001.
* Received Bennet S. LeBow College of Business’s award for Excellence in Service, summer 1999.
* Received COBA Summer Research Mini Grant, "Target Zones and Target Price Readjustment," summer 1998.
* Received the Peter C. Stercho Award for Excellence in Research in Economics, 1994.
* Received the Peter C. Stercho Award for Excellence in Service to the Department of Economics, 1993.
Shawkat Hammoudeh
Educator
About Me
If America’s Debt is Downgraded: The Doom Scenario ...
Posted: 29-Jul-2011
 


If America’s debt is downgraded, the AAA rating on U.S. 10 -year Treasury bond  (sovereign debt) could drop to an A rating.


If America’s debt is downgraded, the 10-year Treasury rate would go up by  75-250  basis points, rising from 3% to  up to 5.50% (ranging from downgrade to full default).


If America’s debt is downgraded, it would add between $100-$300 billion dollars to the U.S. budget deficit in the cases of  downgrade and default.


If America’s debt is downgraded, interest rates on mortgages and financial services will cascade upward.


If America’s debt is downgraded, US dollar may depreciate up to $1.75 per euro.


If America's debt is downgraded, it will affect all the currencies pegged to the US dollar including currencies of five GCC countries.


If America's debt is downgraded, it will affect all foreign assets denominated in US dollar, including billions of assets  of all the six GCC countries.


If America's debt is downgraded, both the U.S. dollar and  economy should worsen.


If America's debt is downgraded, the weak economy effect on oil prices would dominate the weak currency effect,  oil prices should eyeball $80 a barrel and the gold price would stare beyond $1700/oz.


If America’s debt is downgraded, U.S. corporations will be hamstrung by high cost of capital that will squeeze their ability to innovate and expand.


If America’ debt is downgraded, it will hurt both Republicans and Democrats and renew calls for new viable political parties.


If America’ debt is downgraded, Obama's name will be linked very closely to Jimmy Carter's name.


This doom scenario may not materialize if America's political problem is resolved before August 2nd or the President invokes Amendment 14.


Let's wait and see.


 

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