It will take several years before the Arab revolutions will successfully build free and democratic societies. The post-revolutions stages will be the gradual unification of those societies in larger and more respectful states. This revolutionary tide will go into phases. We have just started Phase I. The West should understand this natural evolutionary, revolutionary process. The process should outlast those in power now in Washington, London and Paris. What should the West do? They should stay out!!!
Arab revolutions have started naturally. These are popular uprising against injustice, corruption, oppression and foreign intervention which has been culminated by the occupation of Iraq for the last eight years. The two Iraq wars have strongly contributed to the feeling of desperation and hopelessness. The continuous occupation of Arab land and repeated aggression by Israel has added fuel to the fires of oppression and injustice. Although they all have a natural start, the revolutions have not followed the same trajectory in bringing change. The Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions are more similar than dissimilar in the way they started and in they way they have developed so far; though both are not completed yet. On the other hand, the Bahraini, Yemeni and Libyan revolutions are more dissimilar from each other and from the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions for one basic reasons: the indigenous population of those countries are not homogeneous like the people in Egypt and Tunisia.
In Bahrain, there are Sunni and Shia and the smaller group has more privileges than the larger one. Additionally, you have goodies and intimidation coming from the rich neighbors to twist or influence the outcome. All these factors help the regime there to stay longer in power, and thus the revolution there will take longer time than the Tunisian and Egyptian Revolutions to reach its goal.
In Yemen, there are the north, the south, the Sunni and the Shia, in addition to some support coming to the regime from the rich neighbors and the West. The revolution in Yemen will be longer than the ones in Tunisia and Egypt but it will reach its goals in less time than the Bahraini revolution. In Libya, there are East and West Libya, with the latter having more advantages than the former. This separation in privileges has also lengthened the uprising. However, the Libyan uprising has been contaminated by the West's military intervention which has put a spoke in the wheel of the Libyan resolution in particular, and the Arab revolutions in general. The western military intervention has stripped the Libyan revolution off from its natural evolution and actually divided Libya into two parts; East Libya and West Libya. It will increase the number of Libyan causalities than reduced it as was claimed by President Obama who in my opinion does not truly believe in the benefits and efficacy of the military intervention. It will leave Libya injured like Iraq and in civil war for many years to come. In short, the western military has hurt the Arab revolutions and the march to freedom.
The Arab revolutions will continue for several years. Other regimes are waiting in line but the expected revolutions against them will be more complicated than the Bahraini and Yemeni revolutions. The regimes on the waiting list either have a lot of wealth or getting aid from foreign sources. They are very important to Israel and the West ,and the latter may intervene militarily to help support some of those regimes to stay in power.
The Arab revolutions will be jammed, clogged and twisted by internal and external forces to sway them to this side or that, with the objective of serving foreign or special interests at the expense of the true national interests. They may have to undergo a second or third round of revolutionary corrections. But the natural evolutionary, revolutionary tide will be dominant.
The revolutions will eventually bring regimes that are governed by the people. It will not be hard to get rid of these regimes if the people choose to do so. As the Arab revolutions turned out to be contagious, Arab unification will be contagious, spreading from this country to that country not only because the people are free to choose but also because of pragmatic reasons
To be Continued as Part II
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