Connecting intelligence with intelligence

×
×
 
 |  About this Blog   
 Also alert me on comments
close x
 
A researcher's viewpoint on the regional economies.
Name Shawkat Hammoudeh
Current Position Educator
Company Name Le Bow College of Business, Drexel University
Sector Energy
Age 56
Academic Background Hammoudeh received a post graduate degree in Finance from Drexel University and a Ph.D in Economics from The University of Kansas. His dissertation title was "Optimal Oil Pricing Policy for Saudi Arabia"
Hammoudeh did his MA in Economics from University of Kansas with a minor in Political Science. Hammoudeh did his BA from University of Baghdad.
Biography * 1988-89 & 1991UN Development Program, Amman - Jordan.
* 1983-1988 Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) Kuwait
Senior Economist.
* 1981-1983 Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR), Kuwait Associate Research Scientist.
* 1972 – 1975 Ministry of Foreign Affairs Jordan, Diplomatic Attaché, Amman, Jordan.

HONORS, AWARDS AND GRANTS RECEIVED
* Received Bennet S. LeBow College of Business’s Summer Research Grant "Dynamic Relationships among Petroleum Prices and Oil-Sensitive Stock Markets,” summer 2002.
* Received Bennet S. LeBow College of Business’s Summer Research Grant “Empirical Exploration of the World Oil Price Under the Target Zone Model,” summer 2001.
* Received Bennet S. LeBow College of Business’s award for Excellence in Service, summer 1999.
* Received COBA Summer Research Mini Grant, "Target Zones and Target Price Readjustment," summer 1998.
* Received the Peter C. Stercho Award for Excellence in Research in Economics, 1994.
* Received the Peter C. Stercho Award for Excellence in Service to the Department of Economics, 1993.
Shawkat Hammoudeh
Educator
About Me
Eurozone: Is it a Stabilization Plan Now and Quantitative Easing Soon After?
Posted: 11-May-2010
 


The eurozone leaders finally understood the dangerous potential of the sovereign debt crisis.  They must have received advice from the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke who lived another dangerous crisis in 2008. The eurozone officials have come up with a stabilization plan that covers the whole eurozone and expanded a non-eurozone balance of payments facility to the eurozone during the weekend. This plan deals with a sovereign solvency (or lack of) problem. But this is different from the liquidity problem which begs the ECB to act.

The ECB is behind the curve in employing quantitative easing (QE) as a complementary stabilization plan that provides liquidity on fears of losing independence and igniting inflation in the future, and consequently hurting the euro. ECB President Trichet has gotten his priorities backward. He should worry about the very existence of the eurozone now and independence and future value of the euro next. By avoiding runs on banks, QE is a priority now for the eurozone to continue having the euro existing in the future. QE should maintain liquidty in the banking sector which has faced more risks recently. Third party, liquidity and solvency risks have increased which prompted European banks to become reluctant to lend to each other. They have also moved to over night interbank lending. QE is a non conventional expansionary policy that is needed to promote economic growth when the conventional policy does not work

.Sweden used QE in early 1990s and this policy worked well. Japan used QE during the 1990s but this policy was not aggressive enough and it did not work very well.[1] The United States has an ongoing QE since 2008 and this policy has helped the American economy recover from the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

The eurozone financial ministers and leader met during the weekend to come up with a stabilization plan. The Greece Contagion is the motive behind coming up of a large stabilization plan in a hurry. The plan includes the following:

1. €440 billion stabilization plan for the whole eurozone in the form of government-backed loan guarantees.

2. Expansion of the existing  €50 billion balance-of- payments facility initially assigned to the three noneurozone countries Latvia, Hungary and Romania to a  €110 billion facility to cover the whole eurozone.

3. The eurozone plan and facility come on top of the EU/IMF  €110 billion rescue plan for Greece.

The stabilization plan is a very important protection instrument for the existence and cohesion of the eurozone. But it is very likely that this plan may not help rescue Greece from its woes because the southern European country will not be able to meet its obligations in servicing its mounting and unsustainable foreign debt. Greece needs: debt default and debt forgiveness. If this option is not possible, then the second option is default and exiting the EU.

But for now Mr. Trichet should make up his mind and support the stabilization plan with QE. There will be no value for the euro if the eurozone ceases to exist.[2]

This crisis should spill over from economics to politics. It should change the European political landscape soon. Mr. Gordon Brown will find himself standing in the unemployment line holding hands with Angela Merkel. It will not be long before Sarkosy will shout; asking them to wait so he can hold hands with them. Greece will also see dramatic political changes. They all vaguely see from a distance George Bush standing in the front of the line. They are all too occupied with Iran's nuclear program like George Bush was obsessed with Iraq. They have their priorities backward like Mr. Trichet. They should have education in eurozonism as Bush should have in Iraqism.  All these leaders should receive their political rewards.

[1] For more information, see my blog post: http://blogs.zawya.com/shawkat.hammoudeh/081227004734/

[2] For more information, see: http://blogs.zawya.com/shawkat.hammoudeh/100501214059/

 

Post a Comment

 
  • Comment Title (optional)
  • Express your views or tell us more about this article
  • First Name
  • Last Name
  • Email Address
  • Company Name (optional)
Leave this field empty
 
 
Zawya Comment Policy
 
  1. Zawya encourages you to add a comment to this discussion. You agree that when you add content to this discussion your comments will not:
    1.1   Contain any material which is libelous or defamatory of any person, is obscene, offensive, hateful or inflammatory or causes damage to the reputation of any person or organisation.
    1.2   Promote sexually explicit material, violence, discrimination based on race, sex, religion, nationality, disability, sexual orientation or age or any illegal activity.
    1.3   Be made in breach of any legal duty owed to a third party, such as a contractual duty or a duty of confidence.
    1.4   Be threatening, abuse or invade another's privacy, or cause annoyance, inconvenience or needless anxiety.
    1.5   Be used to impersonate any person, to misrepresent your identity or affiliation with any person, or be likely to deceive any person.
    1.6   Give the impression that they represent Zawya.
    1.7   Advocate, promote or assist any unlawful act such as (by way of example only) copyright infringement or computer misuse.
  2. The content posted on www.zawya.com is created by members of the public. The views expressed are theirs and unless specifically stated are not those of Zawya. Zawya reserves the right to review all comments prior to posting and edit or delete any contribution, but Zawya is not responsible for and can not be held liable for any content posted by members of the public on www.zawya.com.
  3. Zawya is not responsible for the availability or content of any third party sites that are accessible through www.zawya.com. Any links to third party websites from www.zawya.com do not amount to any endorsement of that site by Zawya and any use of that site by you is at your own risk.
  4. By submitting your comment, you hereby give Zawya the right, but not the obligation, to post, air, edit, exhibit, telecast, webcast, re-use, publish, reproduce, use, license, print, distribute or otherwise use your comments worldwide, in perpetuity.
 Create Your Personal Blogs
Share your ideas and thoughts with Zawya's
investment and business community
 
 
BLOG POSTS
By Shawkat Hammoudeh
 
Blogs Search
 
» Show Advanced Search
Topic
 
Contributors
 
Date
From
 
To
 
 
Subscribe to this Blog
 Also alert me on comments