Spread of swine flu

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4 July 2009  

The World Health Organization has said that the spread of swine flu is "unstoppable." It is an ominous warning.

When the pandemic broke out in Mexico three months ago, sci-fi horror movie images of deserted streets and people with face masks appeared to presage imminent disaster for the human race, accompanied as they were with comparisons to the 1918 flu pandemic (Spanish flu), a strain of the same H1N1 virus. Over the following two years, 100 million people perished and 500 million were infected, a third of the world's population at the time. Were that to be replicated with the present world population, there would be 250 million dead and 2.2 billion infected.

But these are meaningless figures. Such extrapolation gives the lie to the absolute value of statistical analysis. It is not going to happen because this is not 1918. Back then, most people had no access to medical help and where it existed, it was limited in what it could do. There were no antiviral drugs, no antibiotics to treat complications; the drugs industry was in its infancy, knowledge of viruses limited. Moreover, communities across a large swathe of Europe were weakened from malnutrition and exhaustion following the ravages of the World War I and the political turmoil that ensued. They were easy prey to the virus. Today, there are the antiviral drugs, there is awareness of what to do.

Because the apocalypse has not actually happened, there has been criticism that medical and political authorities exaggerated the dangers and set the world worrying for nothing. The criticism is thoughtless. The authorities in Mexico, in the US and elsewhere acted responsibly. By alerting the world to the dangers, they ensured effective measures were taken. Had they not been, the disease would have spread far more rapidly; there would have been many more deaths than the 300 confirmed so far. Prompt action slowed down the spread of the virus. Supplies of antiviral drugs have been built up in anticipation of a more serious outbreak later this year. Far better to have been warned and taken action to prevent disaster than doing nothing and being unprepared when the virus hits with a vengeance.

Preparations do not mean that millions will not be infected, rather than millions will not die. At present, in addition to the 300 who have died worldwide since the outbreak started, some 70,000 have been infected in over 100 countries. But this is set to rocket. The UK, for example, the worst hit country in Europe, expects a 100,000 new cases a day within just eight week's time. That is a staggering prediction and difficult to believe.

If the outbreak were to continue at that rate, it would mean 24 million people infected before the end of April. Moreover, at the present rate of three British deaths to 7,447 confirmed cases, that translates to almost 10,000 deaths by the same time. But before dismissing this out of hand as mathematical modeling gone crazy, no country can afford to let its guard down. That is especially so in Saudi Arabia, where the Haj season always results in the spread of new viruses. It is just months away. As of yesterday there were 106 confirmed cases and the number is increasing as elsewhere.

© Arab News 2009