Personal loans surge by Dh5bn in Q1

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Soaring inflation in the UAE boosted personal loans extended by banks to residents by nearly Dh5 billion in the first quarter of 2008 and economists expect them to climb to record levels through the year.

The loans in the first quarter are higher than the personal loans provided by the country's 52 banks through 2006 and their increase indicates a steady growth in household spending because of higher consumer prices.

From Dh43.46bn at the end of 2007, the personal consumer loans provided by the UAE's 24 national banks and 28 foreign units climbed by nearly Dh5bn to a record Dh48.4bn at the end of March, the Central Bank said. The figures, released yesterday, showed growth in the banks' personal consumer loans has sharply picked up over the past two years because of a surge in rents and prices of food and other products.

In 2007, they were estimated at around Dh12bn, while they stood at only Dh3.2bn in 2006 and Dh4bn in 2005.

"It is clear that the acceleration in personal loans growth is associated with rising inflation rates in the UAE," an Abu Dhabi-based economist said.

"It could also be linked to the economic boom in the country but I believe inflation is the dominant factor. The surge in the first quarter of this year indicates the personal lending activity could swell to its highest ever level considering the fact that inflation rates are projected to accelerate further."

Inflation in the UAE was officially put at more than 11 per cent in 2007, up from 9.2 per cent in 2006 and 6.1 per cent in 2005. It was estimated at around five per cent in 2004 and nearly 3.6 per cent in the previous year.

Officials have blamed soaring rents, a steady rise in the prices of food, fuel and other consumer items, the weak US dollar and rising prices worldwide. In the absence of major pay rises in the private sector, demand for personal consumer loans had been expected to grow, while personal commercial loans have also been on the rise because of a business upsurge in the region.

Dealers said the surge in personal and commercial loans was also caused by strong demand for securities following a sharp rise in returns mainly because of better performance by most listed companies.

"Some could sell some of their securities to get cash to buy profitable shares but others preferred to keep those shares and seek loans for more deals," said Karim Helmi, an expert at the Emirates Securities Company.

The Central Bank report showed personal commercial loans also soared by around Dh22bn in 2007 but it gave no figures for the first quarter of 2008.

The report also did not provide updated estimates for the real estate mortgage loans but in a recent report, it said they jumped from around Dh31bn at the end of 2006 to Dh58.8bn at the end of 2007.

By Nadim Kawach

© Emirates Business 24/7 2008