12 November 2007

Dubai: The Middle East will invest $190 billion in 1,160 airplanes over the next 19 years, according to a market forecast by US plane manufacturer Boeing.

Giving a global outlook, the Seattle-based company said airlines will need approximately 28,600 new airplanes valued at $2.8 trillion between now and 2026.

With five per cent passenger growth and 6.1 per cent cargo growth expected over the period, it will take 18,200 new airplanes to meet growth requirement and 10,400 more to replace retiring aircraft - 28,600 in total, Boeing said.

Operating costs

With rising fuel prices, Boeing expects airlines to attempt to reduce their operating costs.

"We are looking at the oil price very carefully and seeing what it will do to the world economy, but the airlines that are profitable are likely to make changes and introduce more fuel efficient aircraft," said Randy Tinseth, vice-president, marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Turning to the dollar's continuing slide, Tinseth said the impact will vary depending on the nationality of the company.

"I don't think the dollar is helping us, but it's probably hurting our competitor [Airbus]," he said.

Twin-aisle segment

Of the Middle East's expected requirement for 1,160 new aircraft, Boeing forecasts 600 to be in the twin-aisle segment, which is expected to main its 50 per cent share of the fleet over the next 19 years.

In terms of growth rates, Boeing forecasts 5.7 per cent passenger growth and 7.1 per cent cargo growth in the region - both higher than the world average.

The largest air travel flows for the region will continue to be to and from Europe, while Oceania ix expected to boast the highest growth in air travel at 6.9 per cent.

Boeing said it recorded 1,044 commercial airplane orders in 2006, compared to 1,002 the previous year.

As of September 30, the company has firm orders for 903 airplanes, more than half of which are for the single aisle 737. The 747 (10 orders), 767 (36), 777 (105) and 787 (262) make up the remaining orders.

By Robert Ditcham

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